Most people get goosebumps at the mere mention of sharks. In reality, the odds of being attacked by a shark are far lower than the odds of being struck by lightning. Following four shark attacks in quick succession in Australia, experts are calling for a more realistic attitude and a better understanding of shark behaviour.
As night falls, a young woman impulsively jumps into the sea for a swim. Suddenly, she feels a searing pain in her calf and a tremendous force drags her downward. She struggles desperately, but before anyone notices, she is pulled mercilessly into the depths of the ocean. This is the iconic scene from Jaws — and the image that has forever shaped the public's perception of sharks as terrifying monsters.
In reality, the rate at which sharks attack people is far lower than most people imagine. Shark bites are usually the result of a shark mistaking a person for prey and delivering an exploratory bite, or a defensive response when the shark feels threatened. According to data from the International Shark Attack File (ISAF), given the billions of aquatic activities that take place globally each year, the probability of an unprovoked shark attack is just 0.000026% — far lower than the 0.0002% chance of being struck by lightning.
Nevertheless, Australia has already seen 4 attacks in early 2026. On 18 January, a 12-year-old boy was attacked by a shark while swimming in Sydney Harbour and died from his injuries. The following day, an 11-year-old boy was surfing at Dee Why Beach when a shark took a large chunk out of his surfboard. A few hours later, a man was bitten by a shark at nearby Manly Beach and was rushed to hospital in a critical condition. On 20 January, a fourth surfer was attacked by a shark 300 kilometres from the coast and sustained injuries to his chest.
Four shark bites in just 48 hours — three of them within a 15-kilometre stretch of Australia's east coast. "This is the closest in proximity and shortest in time I have seen in my 20-year career," said Pepin-Neff, Associate Professor of Public Policy at the University of Sydney.
Four shark attacks occurred in Australia within 48 hours. Photo: Stephen Chalmers／Unsplash
Why Did Shark Attacks Suddenly Increase After Heavy Rain?
This series of incidents triggered widespread concern across Australia. Dozens of beaches were closed for fear of similar events, and calls even emerged for sharks to be culled. So why did shark attacks suddenly surge?
Experts point to a strong correlation with several consecutive days of heavy rainfall. Sydney received 127 mm of rain in 24 hours — the highest recorded in 38 years. "The storm created ideal conditions for Bull Sharks; the freshwater runoff from land was practically perfect for them," Rebecca Olive, a senior researcher at RMIT University, told the BBC. Bull Sharks favour warm, brackish water, and after heavy rain they are particularly drawn to estuaries and murky inshore waters, increasing the likelihood of accidental encounters between Bull Sharks and people in the water.
At the same time, the floodwater flushed sewage into the sea. The nutrient-rich runoff attracted baitfish to new areas, and Bull Sharks followed. Nicholas Ray, a shark researcher at Nottingham Trent University in the UK, argued that the frequency of attacks in such a short period was the result of a complex interaction between climate change, ecosystem shifts, and human behaviour — not the product of any single factor.
Multiple shark attacks occurring within a short period are rare and usually linked to specific environmental factors. Photo: Gerald Schömbs／Unsplash
Many people may feel that beaches are recreational spaces regularly used by humans, and that sharks "intrude" into human activity zones — and that culling sharks would reduce the number of attacks. Yet the ocean is the natural domain of sharks. They are mobile predators that are naturally drawn toward food sources. If warming continues and sewage keeps flowing into the sea, is culling sharks truly the best solution?
Rather Than Driving Sharks Away, Reduce the Chances of Human–Shark Encounters
Changes to river systems, sewage overflows, and fishing activity all influence where baitfish congregate, making swimming or surfing near estuaries after heavy rain a high-risk activity. Climate warming has also extended the period during which sharks appear along coastlines. "Rising water temperatures are causing sharks to stay longer in higher-latitude areas and to linger longer in their summer habitats," added Victoria Camilieri-Asch, a shark behaviour expert at Queensland University of Technology.
Regarding calls to cull sharks, experts do not believe this would solve the problem. "Culling only creates an illusion of safety — it doesn't actually make beaches safer," Olive noted. People should focus on understanding shark behaviour and learning to respect each other's living spaces, rather than seeking to eliminate sharks.
Two key measures can reduce the likelihood of being attacked:
- Avoid shark feeding times and locations: murky coastal waters and estuaries with dense fish populations at dawn, dusk, and night.
- Reduce the chances of being mistaken for prey: Sharks' eyesight cannot distinguish fine details the way humans can; they primarily rely on smell, water vibration, and electroreception to identify prey. Avoiding vigorous splashing, wearing reflective jewellery, entering the water with open wounds, or wearing colours and patterns that resemble prey can all reduce the risk of being misidentified. Sharks also tend to approach isolated targets, so it's best to enter the water with a companion.
In truth, sharks are not particularly fond of approaching areas where humans are active — they are more docile and shy than most people imagine. When an attack occurs, it is easy to blame the shark, but their behaviour has not changed; they are simply following water temperature, food, and environmental cues as they always have. It is human activity and development, along with climate-driven changes, that have caused our ranges to overlap more frequently. Rather than reducing the issue to "eliminating the threat," perhaps we should better understand how these variables have been caused by human actions, and reconsider the way we coexist with the ocean.
References
- BBC, Four attacks in 48 hours: How East Australia's beaches became a 'perfect storm' for sharks
- euronews, Sharks aren't 'turning on us'. So what's behind the recent spate of attacks?
- The Independent, Australia closes dozens of beaches after fourth shark attack in 48 hours: 'Just go to a local pool'
- ABC News, After a horror week of shark attacks, how do we sift facts from fear?
※ This article is reprinted from the Delta Electronics Foundation's Low Carbon Life Blog: Do You Think Sharks Are Dangerous? Maybe We Just Don't Know Them Well Enough!, co-produced with BlueTrend.
